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6,000 executives in four countries: 69% of firms use AI, nine in ten see no effect yet

69% of firms actively used AI. Nine in ten executives reported no effect of AI on their firm's employment or productivity over the past three years. For the next three years they expect productivity to rise 1.4%, output 0.8% and employment to fall 0.7%.

By
Last reviewed
Type of study
Survey
Published
2026
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At a glance

Source
Yotzov, Barrero, Bloom, Bunn, Davis, Foster, Jalca, Meyer, Mizen, Navarrete, Smietanka, Thwaites and Wang (2026). Firm Data on AI. NBER Working Paper 34836 (February 2026, revised March 2026). doi:10.3386/w34836 · Not peer-reviewed: other researchers have not yet checked it for a journal.
How it was done
The authors put the same questions to senior executives in four standing business surveys run with central banks and a university, between November 2025 and January 2026. Survey. People answered questions once. It shows what goes together, not what causes what.
Who took part
Nearly 6,000 senior executives, such as chief executives and finance directors, in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Australia.
Where
Four countries. The surveys were run with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank and Macquarie University.

“Third, executives report little own-firm impact of AI over the last 3 years, with nine-in-ten reporting no impact on employment or productivity.”

What it found

  • Use. 69% of firms actively used AI: 78% in the United States, 71% in the United Kingdom, 65% in Germany and 59% in Australia. Younger, more productive and larger firms used it more often.
  • What for. The most common use was text generation with AI chatbots, by 41% of firms.
  • Executives’ own use. More than two-thirds of executives used AI regularly, for about 1.5 hours a week on average.
  • Effect so far. Nine in ten executives said AI had not changed their firm’s employment or productivity over the past three years.
  • Expected effect. Over the next three years, executives expect AI to raise productivity by 1.4%, raise output by 0.8% and cut employment by 0.7%. Employees, asked separately, expect employment at their firms to rise 0.5%.

When the result holds

The figure for use depends on who is asked and how. The US Census Bureau’s survey of all US firms found 18% using AI in a business function at about the same time. The Census authors explain most of the gap by the size and sector of the firms in each sample: about 75% of US firms have fewer than 10 employees.

Limits

  • A working paper, not peer-reviewed.
  • Every figure is reported by the executives themselves. “No effect” may also mean that a firm has not measured one.
  • The surveys ask at one point in time. They show what goes together, not what causes what.

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