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Freelance demand for writing and translation fell 20–50% after ChatGPT

After ChatGPT launched, demand for freelance skills it can replace, such as writing and translation, fell 20–50% below the trend expected without it. Short-term jobs fell most. Demand for building AI chatbots nearly tripled, and demand for novice freelancers fell.

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Type of study
Data analysis
Published
2025
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At a glance

Source
Teutloff, Einsiedler, Kässi, Braesemann, Mishkin and del Rio-Chanona (2025). Winners and losers of generative AI: Early Evidence of Shifts in Freelancer Demand. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 235, 106845. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106845
How it was done
The authors grouped job postings into 116 skill clusters and had GPT-4o label each one as replaceable by, helped by or unaffected by AI chatbots. They then compared demand in each cluster after ChatGPT's launch with the trend expected without it. Data analysis. It builds a measure from existing data, such as job and task records.
Who took part
Over three million job postings from January 2021 to September 2023, according to the University of Oxford's summary of the paper, grouped into 116 skill clusters.
Where
One leading global online freelance platform, which the paper does not name. Freelancers are sole traders; many of the buyers are small firms.

What it found

  • Total demand rose. Demand for freelance work grew after ChatGPT’s launch. All of the growth came in skill clusters that AI helps or does not affect.
  • Replaceable skills fell. Demand for skills such as writing and translation fell 20–50% below the trend expected without ChatGPT. Short-term jobs fell most.
  • Some AI-related skills grew. Demand for machine-learning programming rose 24%. Demand for building AI chatbots nearly tripled.
  • Novices lost out. Demand for novice freelancers fell overall.

When the result holds

The study looks at the market for work that firms buy in by the job. When a firm hands short writing or translation jobs to AI, the loss shows up at the freelancer who used to do them. A firm’s own figures for time saved do not show that loss.

A separate study of a freelance platform found the same direction: posts for writing and coding jobs fell 21% within eight months of ChatGPT’s launch (Demirci, Hannane and Zhu, Management Science, 2025).

Limits

  • The data are postings, not completed contracts or pay.
  • It covers one platform and ends in September 2023, before later AI tools.
  • A language model, GPT-4o, labelled which skills AI can replace. Some clusters may be labelled wrongly.
  • OpenAI supported the research by giving access to its GPT models, according to the university’s summary.

Practices that use this study

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