At a glance
- Source
- Bonney, Breaux, Dinlersoz, Foster, Haltiwanger and Pande (2026). The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks. US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Working Paper CES-WP-26-25 (April 2026). www2.census.gov · Not peer-reviewed: other researchers have not yet checked it for a journal.
- How it was done
- Firms answered extra questions on AI in the Census Bureau's regular Business Trends and Outlook Survey. The answers were weighted to represent all US firms. Survey. People answered questions once. It shows what goes together, not what causes what.
- Who took part
- More than 117,000 US firms that answered between 17 November 2025 and 8 February 2026, weighted to represent all US firms.
- Where
- United States; all sectors and sizes. About 75% of US firms have fewer than 10 employees.
“Most users (66%) rely on AI solely to augment tasks, while AI-related employment decreases are rare, occurring in only 2% of firms.”
What it found
- Use. 18% of firms used AI in at least one business function. Weighted by employees, the figure was 32%. 22% expected to use AI within six months.
- By size. About 18% of firms with fewer than 20 employees used AI, against 31% of firms with 250 or more. Firms with 1–4 employees expected to reach about 21% within six months; the largest firms expected 40%.
- By sector. Use reached 50–60% only among very large firms in information, professional services and finance.
- Narrow use. 57% of firms using AI used it in three or fewer business functions. The most common were sales and marketing (52%), strategy and business development (45%) and IT (41%).
- Help, not replacement. 66% of users used AI only to help staff with tasks. 2% of firms reported cutting jobs because of AI.
The Census Bureau’s own summary for the months up to May 2026 put use at 17–20% of firms. About 14% of retail firms used AI (US Census Bureau, May 2026).
When the result holds
The survey covers all US firms, so most of the firms in it are very small. Surveys of executives at larger firms find far higher use, such as 69% in a survey run with central banks in four countries. The Census authors find similar figures when they look only at large firms in the sectors that use AI most.
In November 2025 the Census Bureau changed its question. It used to ask about AI used “in producing goods or services”. It now asks about AI used “in any business function”. The figures before and after the change cannot be compared directly.
Limits
- A working paper that has not had the Census Bureau’s full review.
- Firms report their own use. The survey shows what goes together, not what causes what.
- United States only.
Practices that use this study
This study supports:
Claim checks that cite this study
- “66% of small businesses use AI” Needs correcting